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There's a mountain of evidence that Trump's trade fights will be most harmful to the people who voted for him


In President Donald Trump's trade war, the states he won during the election are the most defenseless.


That's according to economists at Citi, who last week published a research note on which US states are most exposed to a trade war and what this means for the midterm elections.


'With several economies now imposing retaliatory trade actions in the wake of the Trump administration’s trade tariffs, the stakes have risen for, and the evidence more compelling against, 'red' states by several measures,' Citi's Dana Peterson said in the note.


The tariffs — taxes on imports to the US — were sold as a way to level the playing field between US producers and their foreign competition, and grow industry even more. But China, the European Union, Canada, India, and Mexico are set to retaliate.


On Friday, the US and China imposed tariffs on $34 billion worth of each other's goods, with China's Ministry of Commerce saying in a statement that Trump launched 'the largest trade war in economic history.'


Red states, so-called because they're historically Republican or voted for Trump in 2016, stand to lose more because they benefit the most from trade with other countries, Citi's Peterson said. Imports and exports to red states totaled $2.1 trillion last year, compared to $1.7 trillion for Democratic blue states. Texas, Michigan, and Illinois were among the largest contributors to trade nationwide, since they have some of the largest ports.


After examining the kinds of goods that could be taxed, Citi found that red states ship more to countries that could retaliate US tariffs. These exports include various kinds of food, beverages, luxury goods and medical appliances — all of which are under the purview of tariffs.


This analysis was based on data from the Census Bureau, which tell us where these products were shipped from, not where they were made. But even after looking at Bureau of Economic Analysis data that show what each state produces, Citi's conclusion was that tariffs would hurt red states more than they help.


The state-level data further show that 80% of red-state economies benefit, at a level above the national median, from producing goods targeted by tariffs. Only 10% of blue states are above the median.


The retaliatory tariffs could hit where they hurt the most: ordinary voters' pockets. According to Commerce Department data compiled by Citi, red states accounted for 3.9 million jobs related to goods exports, compared to 2.5 million in blue states.


'With few exceptions (Texas, Florida), many 'red' states lack large, coastal international hubs, which might make each additional exports-related job loss associated with reduced global trade that much more detrimental to per capita income growth,' Peterson said.


And five months to the election, it's possible that trade wars become a major campaign issue, she added.


'Every region of the US is affected by trade dispute intensification, but the data suggest that voters living in states that supported President Trump in 2016 may bear the brunt of the negative repercussions of heightened tensions and the imposition of retaliatory measures,' Peterson said.


'A fighting chance'


To gauge the impact of the trade wars, the manufacturing sector is a good place to start. Many business owners are worried, but aren't slowing hiring yet. Contacts that spoke to the regional Federal Reserve banks and responded to surveys, particularly those who rely on steel and aluminum, have flagged higher prices.


The outcry is not industrywide, however. That's partly because manufacturers are still on a hiring spree that gained steam after the 2016 elections. The Labor Department's jobs report for June, the fourth month since tariffs were implemented, showed manufacturing jobs increased by 36,000. That was the third-best month in the last five years.


'It's time to acknowledge that predictions that the steel tariffs would bring doom and gloom were wildly off-base,' Scott Paul, president of the Alliance for American Manufacturing, said in a statement Friday after the jobs report.


'The long-term benefits to employment and the US economy from leveling the playing field on trade can be secured,' Paul said.


'But we've got to give this strategy a fighting chance.'



原创翻译:三泰虎 http://www.santaihu.com/45519.html 译者:Joyceliu


Rodney19 hours ago

The red states are willing to take one for the team right?




Samson21 hours ago

Thoughts and prayers



wp21 hours ago

Best news I heard all year



AB21 hours ago

How's the coal business?



kelly19 hours ago

Good, because that’s what they voted for




shr?d-?21 hours ago

gee what a surprise!



No Tea For Me

No Tea For Me19 hours ago

During the 2016 election Trump told the people in these red states that he would place tariffs on China and the E.U. and that he would end NAFTA. He's doing exactly what he said he would do. So... no one in these red states have a complaint when the tariffs affect them. You got what you voted for.



Mangez Ma Merde18 hours ago

Trump. 'I know more about starting a world wide economic depression than all the generals.'



wendellk19 hours ago

Scrambled Soybeans for Breakfast. A Soybean Sandwich for Lunch. Soybean Stew for Dinner. ... The new Midwestern diet..

早餐吃炒大豆。午餐吃大豆三明治。晚餐吃大豆炖肉……这是中西部饮食新潮流. .


Can-we-agree21 hours ago

And yet 'The Base' still supports him. Could this be where they come around?



Percy20 hours ago

They thought they elected a president.



Watch Out Where The Huskies Go18 hours ago

With a long and distinguished history of voting against their own self interest, it makes perfect sense that this would be the red states plan. Enjoy!



billy rubin15 hours ago

Every economic expert asserted that a trade war would be harmful to America’s economy except Larry Kudlow, Trump’s economic director who was hired simply because he’s another “yes man.” Trump never takes advice from experts in any particular field.



TheCurve21 hours ago

Are these people aware of that?



billy rubin15 hours ago

The global economy will continue trade - just without the US.



Badone18 hours ago

Read the story about the frog and the scorpion. It applies here.



Cliff14 hours ago

Canada: 80 % of the USA still considers you our Friend...



Bob19 hours ago

Unemployment is up, Pay is flat, Inflation is rising faster then wages, stock market is down over 2000 points from January 2018, Interest rates are up, Gas prices are at a 4 year high. Are we Winning Yet???

失业率上升,工资不涨,通货膨胀比工资涨得快,股票市场比2018年1月下跌超过2000点,利率上升,汽油价格达到4年高点。我们这叫赢了吗? ? ?


american21 hours ago

How will they be a able to afford the payment on there trailers and the Faux 'Entertainment News' channel.



KSA19 hours ago

By the way Donald Trump just placed an order for thousands of campaign flags for the 2020 election yes where he placed the order China. I guess no one in America makes Flags



DanP16 hours ago

Unemployment is rising,
Interest rates are rising




Jack21 hours ago

Glad I do not grow soy bean.



Ptriot21 hours ago

Shocked. Everything in his history of business deals showed over and over that he really cared about 'the little guy.' Not.



Paver21 hours ago

Trump plays checkers..China and Europe play chess.



Kenneth17 hours ago

'Trade wars are easy to win' - Trump



JDinFLA21 hours ago

Could not have happened to a nicer group of people...Thoughts and Prayers.



Audrey21 hours ago

Finally! THIS will cause Trump's base support to erode..............right?



Vern21 hours ago

The Dollar General will have to change it's name to the Two Dollar General.



Mangez Ma Merde18 hours ago

By the time Trump is finished negotiating with North Korea, North Korea will own North Carolina and North Dakota.

Trump will state, 'Only a stable genius like me would know to keep all the 'North's' together in one package.' MAGA !!!!!


特朗普会说,“只有像我这样的稳定的天才才会知道把所有‘北X’集结在一起。”让美国再次伟大! ! ! ! !


Richard113813 hours ago

And this will cascade into other soybean/dairy/cattle stuff. Can't imagine farm equipment companies (like John Deere) doing well if farmers are losing money.






    答:中国的媒体都跑美国采访,看来得多关心美国人民埃 却不报道中国的出口型企业受到多大的冲击和压力。中国的老百姓会享受到质优价廉的外国商品。 中国的媒体都是精神分裂症。




    答:哈…所以说中国的最大特色就是“保~皇~派”的利益永远是最大化的! 谈到大豆我倒是觉得不到最后关口,中国高层是不打这张牌的。很简单的一个问题中国一年要进口1百多亿美元的大豆,这么大的量都能被中国人消化掉,虽然说是转基因的,但也证明中国有...


    答:1月24日报道称,唐纳德·特朗普已批准对进口太阳能电池和洗衣机征收大范围关税,祭出了预计他将采取的一系列举措中的第一招。这些举措旨在打击中国,实现他对美国“锈带”选民做出的保护主义承诺。 据英国1月23日报道,基于美国法律中一项极少被引...




    答:美国新任总统特朗普自从上任以来可谓是争议不断,特朗普质疑欧盟,公开欢迎英国“脱欧”,并说北约“已过时”――这些动摇欧洲安全、稳定与繁荣根基的言论,让美国传统盟友欧洲忧心忡忡然后大刀阔斧的改革, 废除奥巴马在任时的许多政策,前两天与澳大...



    www.154155.com true http://154155.com/18/0710/18/22587800fzj769366458.html report 14965 There'samountainofevidencethatTrump'stradefightswillbemostharmfultothepeoplewhovotedforhim大量证据表明,特朗普的贸易斗争将使支持他的选民遭受最严重的伤害InPresidentDonaldTrump'stradewar,thestateshewonduringtheelectionarethemostdefenseless.在唐纳德·特朗
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